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China will have a Short-Term Recession

China is pulling itself out of the worldwide recession by investing in itself. For instance, their economic stimulus plan mostly involves infrastructure improvements, such as newer and bigger highways, railroads, ports, buildings, etc. just to name a few of their enhancements.

The basic idea is that China already needs these improvements to their antiquated and insufficient infrastructure. These improvements will mean millions of new jobs throughout China for Chinese workers. This is especially useful because of the millions of jobs that have already been lost because of the worldwide recession. This will have the added benefit of also suppressing some of the civil unrest because of the downturn in the Chinese economy.

As a result, these new jobs should continue to support the growing Chinese economy and their new middle class. The hope is that the Chinese economy will eventually be self sufficient in all of their needs. This is probably completely impossible, since China does not have sufficient fuel resources and raw materials for themselves. However, the actual goal is to develop the Chinese consumerism to be sufficient enough to make up for the loss in trade to other countries. This is possible, since the Chinese market may eventually be larger than the rest of the developed world combined.

As a result, China will be the first country out of this worldwide recession.

Unfortunately, this will not help any other country. Actually, it will probably hurt every other country, because of China's growing demand for resources and fuel will increase the prices for these raw materials at a time when all the other countries of the world are still in a recession and can not afford an increase in prices or inflation.

Therefore, China being the first country out of their recession will make it much harder for other countries to get out of their recessions. As a result, the world's recession will last much longer than the Chinese recession.

by Phil for Humanity
on 02/09/2009

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